Tuesday, February 10, 2009

A quick look at MLB Futures

Most books have lines on the World Series, Pennants, and Division titles. Here are lines that stood out to me at first glance.

World Series:

Arizona at 25-1: Every starting position player (perhaps excepting Felipe Lopez) should improve on last year's performance. Their pitching staff is top heavy with Haren, Webb, and Scherzer, which is great if they make the playoffs. And PECOTA, the most predictive objective (or otherwise) model out there, has them winning the division with 90 wins.

Oakland A's at 55-1: This is the best bet I see. Bodog has a crazy line, as most sites have this at around 30-1. The Angels are around 12-1, and with PECOTA seeing the A's winning the division, this is just too good to pass up.

The books must make a killing off Yankees and Cubs fans. The Yankees are at worse than 3-1 in some places to win the WS. Thats just brutal. The Cubs are actually not too bad at 8-1, but they haven't won in a whiiiile.

Thats actually all I found. Some of these lines are severely removed from reality. I guess I'd lean towards The Braves at 4.5-1 to win the NL East. But that's a stretch.

As of yet I haven't found any prop bets, O/U wins or the sort. When they come out I'll post on whatever value I can find.